Latin America in the new geometry of global supply chains

This paper assesses Latin America and the Caribbean’s (LAC) preparedness to take advantage of potential shifts in the structure of global value chains (GVC). We start by unpacking and examining the main drivers of change in global trade and investment flows, focusing on technology, sustainability, and geopolitics. In each area, the paper analyzes the likely implications for investment and sourcing decisions in the context of GVCs, identifying several channels through which each broad driver is likely to shape GVCs in the future. This discussion highlights diverse and, in some cases, countervailing impacts on global trade, adding nuance to existing debates over deglobalization or nearshoring. Drawing on this conceptual framework, we develop a new set of preparedness indicators for GVC participation and compare LAC’s performance to the Organization for Economic Co- operation and Development (OECD) and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The region lags behind on technology-related indicators but appears to be well positioned to take advantage of sustainability and geopolitical drivers.