RED
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Pesquisar por
'%3E%3Cpath d='M20.6719 10.582C20.6719 4.96289 16.1191 0.410156 10.5 0.410156C4.88086 0.410156 0.328125 4.96289 0.328125 10.582C0.328125 15.6589 4.04783 19.8671 8.91064 20.6309V13.5224H6.32666V10.582H8.91064V8.34094C8.91064 5.79182 10.4282 4.38375 12.7526 4.38375C13.8657 4.38375 15.0298 4.58227 15.0298 4.58227V7.08422H13.7468C12.4835 7.08422 12.0894 7.86844 12.0894 8.67275V10.582H14.9104L14.4592 13.5224H12.0894V20.6309C16.9522 19.8671 20.6719 15.6589 20.6719 10.582Z' fill='%231774AD'/%3E%3C/g%3E%3Cdefs%3E%3CclipPath id='clip0_10796_46376'%3E%3Crect width='21' height='21' fill='white'/%3E%3C/clipPath%3E%3C/defs%3E%3C/svg%3E%0A)
'%3E%3Cpath d='M19.5 0H1.49531C0.670312 0 0 0.679688 0 1.51406V19.4859C0 20.3203 0.670312 21 1.49531 21H19.5C20.325 21 21 20.3203 21 19.4859V1.51406C21 0.679688 20.325 0 19.5 0ZM6.34687 18H3.23438V7.97812H6.35156V18H6.34687ZM4.79062 6.60938C3.79219 6.60938 2.98594 5.79844 2.98594 4.80469C2.98594 3.81094 3.79219 3 4.79062 3C5.78437 3 6.59531 3.81094 6.59531 4.80469C6.59531 5.80312 5.78906 6.60938 4.79062 6.60938ZM18.0141 18H14.9016V13.125C14.9016 11.9625 14.8781 10.4672 13.2844 10.4672C11.6625 10.4672 11.4141 11.7328 11.4141 13.0406V18H8.30156V7.97812H11.2875V9.34687H11.3297C11.7469 8.55937 12.7641 7.72969 14.2781 7.72969C17.4281 7.72969 18.0141 9.80625 18.0141 12.5062V18Z' fill='%231774AD'/%3E%3C/g%3E%3Cdefs%3E%3CclipPath id='clip0_10796_46378'%3E%3Crect width='21' height='21' fill='white'/%3E%3C/clipPath%3E%3C/defs%3E%3C/svg%3E%0A)
Link da publicação
Improving food security through community participation: results from a randomized field experiment in rural Nicaragua
This paper evaluates a community based development program designed to promote climate-smart agriculture and improve food security in rural Nicaragua. Using a within-community randomized controlled trial, we estimate short- and medium-term impacts on agricultural practices, production, and welfare. The program combined productive asset transfers, technical assistance, and training delivered through local solidarity groups. Results show significant increases in the adoption of improved inputs—such as certified seeds, biofertilizers, and post-harvest technologies—along with higher maize and bean yields, greater crop diversification, and expanded participation in producer organizations. Beneficiaries also report better food security and higher satisfaction with their quality of life. Because randomization occurred within communities, spillovers likely make these estimates conservative. The findings suggest that community-based delivery can effectively scale up CSA practices and strengthen food security in vulnerable rural areas.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Cooperation and Competition: The Case of Innovation in the Telecommunications Sector
This paper proposes a novel framework for analyzing collaborative innovation that captures both competition and cooperation among firms, and examines the impact of private appropriation through IP rights licensing on firms’ incentives to innovate and on the overall outcome. I show that when developing technology together firms compete and cooperate, and that the intensity of each force depends on their technological similarity and business model. To study the net effect of these forces in equilibrium, I focus on the standardization of mobile telecommunications technologies and use a novel dataset on the development of 3G and 4G standards to estimate my model. I show that enforcing royalty-free clauses reduces the participation and contributions of firms, delaying the completion of the initial release of 4G by almost one year beyond the almost 3 years it took to develop.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Estimating Choice Models with Piecewise Smooth Objective Functions: Application to Joint Retirement
We study choice models with piecewise smooth objective functions and provide conditions under which introducing latent variables derived from regional components yields a censoredmodel– like representation. These latent variables can then be treated as potential outcomes, enabling tractable estimation via the stochastic EM algorithm. We illustrate the framework using two examples: responses to taxes and the (S, s) model. We further estimate a joint retirement decision model for European couples using an interdependent duration framework with our methods. The results provide empirical evidence of complementarities between spouses in the retirement process in Europe.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Performance Incentives and Managerial Practices: Experimental Evidence from Local Governments in Peru
This paper examines how public organizations respond to institutional incentive design by comparing an input-based contract with a mixed input- and outcome-based contract. Using a clustered randomized controlled trial across 539 rural municipalities in Peru, I study how these contracts shape managerial practices in the implementation of a national Home Visit Program. While the mixed incentive did not alter home-visit coverage, it produced clear shifts in managerial behavior: municipalities expanded their supervisory staff, rewarded Community Health Workers more frequently, and intensified monitoring of the anemia indicator tied to the contract. They also adopted more targeted innovations for children at risk of anemia, although broader processes, such as training and supervision intensity, remained largely unchanged.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
The Role of Geography and Gender in Telecommunications Standards Participation
Do meeting locations shape who influences telecom standards? Using quasi-random variation generated by 3GPP rules that rotate venues across cities, we study attendance at 2,241 working group meetings (1999–2018). In a gravity-style linear probability model, geographic distance and national borders sharply reduce individual participation, even after controlling for role, seniority, and inventive activity. Crucially, the distance penalty is substantially larger for women and cannot be explained by differences in experience or technical expertise. By contrast, participation by core firms and senior technical leaders is comparatively insensitive to travel frictions. These results show that, despite cheaper communication and abundant air connections, spatial barriers still govern access to standard-setting and can tilt representation in a key arena of innovation policy.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
The structure of local bureaucracies in Mexico
This paper provides a systematic characterization of the organizational architecture of municipal governments in Mexico and how it varies with municipal size. Using detailed data from the National Census of Municipal Governments, the analysis documents patterns in the number of organizational units, staffing levels, sectoral specialization, and the allocation of budgetary and labor resources across functional areas. The results show that municipal bureaucracies expand initially through the creation of new units and, at later stages, through increased staffing within existing units, and that core functions such as public works, public services, and public security account for a large share of organizational resources. By describing these patterns, the paper helps address the scarcity of empirical evidence on the internal organization of the public sector and motivates further research on the relationship between organizational form and local state capacity.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Women’s representation and the governance of the commons
The study analyzes how the inclusion of women in community governance bodies affects the management of common resources. It takes advantage of the 2016 reform of Mexico's Agrarian Law, which imposed gender quotas on agrarian committees, to estimate causal effects using a staggered event design. With data from more than a decade (2012–2023), it finds that greater female participation reduces annual deforestation by approximately 6%, without affecting local economic activity. Furthermore, inclusion changes interaction with the state: applications for empowerment programs increase and those for production subsidies decrease, although approval rates fall in communities with more women, highlighting institutional barriers. In summary, the formal inclusion of women transforms the governance of shared resources, but structural obstacles persist.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Urban Planning and Local Development: Evidence from Brazil
This paper studies the effects of mandated urban planning introduced by Brazil’s 2001 City Statute, which required municipalities with at least 20,000 inhabitants to adopt a master plan. Exploiting this population threshold in a fuzzy regression discontinuity design and combining survey, fiscal, census, and satellite data, I show that having a master plan generated sustained improvements in housing and urban infrastructure by strengthening local state capacity. Municipalities expanded their set of urban planning and land management instruments beyond the master plan and increased investment in housing and urban infrastructure, financed through higher land-based revenues. State governments further supported these investments by conditioning earmarked transfers on plan adoption.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
How Do Climate Adaptation Policies Affect Deforestation? Evidence from a Large-Scale Water Policy
This paper examines the effects of a climate adaptation policy on production and environmental outcomes in the context of Brazil’s semiarid region, the country’s poorest and most drought prone region. The large-scale, low-cost water policy builds rainwater reservoirs designed to boost production and strengthen rural producers’ resilience. Using a difference-in-differences approach and linking property-level administrative data to high resolution satellite data, we find that cistern construction real locates land toward higher-productivity uses. Results indicate an increase in cropland area by 7.6% and higher-quality pasture area by 14.5%, while lower-quality pasture area decreases by 3.2%. Forest cover increases by 1.1%, consistent with a land saving effect driven by a reduction of lower-quality pasture. Effects hold across property sizes and are slightly larger in magnitude for small-sized properties. Our cost-benefit analysis reveals a positive aggregate return with each invested monetary unit generating 1.76 units of benefits, indicating that adaptation policies can also advance mitigation goals via forest preservation.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Women in Office: The Impact of Female Politicians on Gender-Based Violence Reporting
Gender-based violence in the U.S. is a silent epidemic. Twenty percent of women experience rape, yet only one in three reports it. Using FBI data and a regression discontinuity design, we examine the impact of female U.S. House Representatives on reported rapes and femicides. Our findings suggest an increase in reporting, rather than higher levels of violence. Our setting and additional analysis allow us to rule out policy channels. We argue that female politicians serve as role models, influencing reporting through symbolic and social pathways. Congressional speech data support this argument: female legislators advocate more against gender-based violence, and their speeches correlate with higher reporting in their districts.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Perceived Ability and School Choices: Experimental Evidence and Scale-up Effects
This paper explores an information intervention designed and implemented within a school assignment mechanism in Mexico City. Through a randomized experiment, we show that providing a subset of applicants with feedback about their academic performance can enhance sorting by skill across high school tracks. We embed the experimental variation into an empirical model of schooling choice and outcomes to assess the impact of the intervention for the overall population of applicants. Feedback provision is shown to increase the efficiency of the student school allocation, while congestion externalities are detrimental for the equity of downstream education outcomes.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Lasting Lessons: The Long-Term Impacts of School-Based Financial Education
This study experimentally examines the long-term effects of school-based financial education, analyzing data from nearly 60,000 individuals in Peru, seven years post-intervention. Treated students increased their total debt by 7.2% and average loan size by 7.8%, shifting from revolving to non-revolving credit. Borrowing terms improved slightly, and repayment performance remained unaffected despite increased borrowing. Formal employment and business formation remained unchanged. Impacts were equitable across sex and socioeconomic status, but higher performing students gained more in credit access. During the COVID-19 pandemic, financial education enhanced resilience by reducing reliance on revolving credit in favor of productive loans.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Lifting Each Other Up: How Cooperative Firms Foster Local Development
Do cooperative firms foster local economic development? This paper examines Mexico, assembling a new georeferenced panel dataset at the 10 × 10 km grid-cell level for 2015–2023. Across multiple research designs, we consistently find that cooperative presence boosts local development, measured by nightlight intensity. An event-study design shows persistent extensive-margin gains of 6–8% within four years of entry. To address selection concerns, we implement a shift–share IV strategy based on endogenous lagged-cooperative presence and plausibly exogenous sectoral growth shocks; the results imply that one additional cooperative increases nightlight density by about 2.7%.Complementary census evidence links cooperatives to higher schooling, home asset ownership, and decrease migration pressures. We also document stronger effects in Indigenous communities, where cooperatives have longer survival spells. Aggregate patterns suggest that cooperatives increase agricultural specialization but with clear productivity gains, while redistributive effects raise local disposable income and decrease poverty. These findings provide novel causal evidence that cooperatives can function as engines of inclusive local development.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Women, Motherhood, and Structural Transformation. Insights from Rural Latin America
Structural transformation—the shift from agriculture to industry and services—is key to economic development and can reshape labor market gender gaps. Yet little is known about how this process has unfolded in rural Latin America, where women face disadvantages from both gender and rurality. We document rural women’s labor market outcomes in 14 countries using harmonized household surveys, estimate motherhood effects using a pseudo-event study around first childbirth, and examine mechanisms using time-use data from Mexico. Despite educational gains, rural women still lag behind rural men and urban women in employment, hours, and earnings. While structural transformation has reduced informality and increased service and formal job participation, unpaid family work and precarious employment remain widespread among rural women. Motherhood further exacerbates disadvantages. Rural mothers face smaller employment drops than urban mothers but are increasingly pushed into unpaid work and low-skilled self-employment. Evidence from Mexico shows this stem less from childcare than from heavier household chores, home production, and limited access to labor-saving technologies. This paper provides the first evidence on how structural transformation interacts with motherhood in rural Latin America, showing that structural change alone cannot ensure inclusive opportunities for rural women.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Geography and Agricultural Productivity: The Case of Latin America and the Caribbean
This working paper quantifies the role of current land quality and geographic conditions as well as projected future climate change for agricultural productivity differences across and within Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries. It combines geospatial data on potential yields by crop and grid-cell, with a spatial accounting framework. If LAC countries produced their crops in the locations, they produce them with potential yields rather than actual, the 18 percent aggregate yield deficit relative to the richest countries would be reversed to an 18 percent surplus. While there are considerable cross-country and within-country heterogeneity, overall LAC countries have favorable natural land productivity. With improved input application and cultivation practices most LAC countries can double agricultural productivity, with substantial structural change implications. Climate change will reduce average yields in most LAC countries, but because of its heterogeneous effects across regions, there is more scope for yield gains from the spatial reallocation of production than under current conditions.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Grados de ruralidad: una propuesta de medición para Argentina
Este trabajo contribuye a la medición de “grados de ruralidad” en Argentina. El trabajo propone un índice multidimensional relativo de ruralidad que integra la clasificación tradicional de áreas de INDEC con datos censales y estimaciones de distancias a centros poblados. Como ejercicios de robustez, se comparan los resultados con los obtenidos de luces en la noche e imágenes satelitales. Además de presentar mapas del grado de ruralidad para todo el territorio argentino, el trabajo ofrece una caracterización amplia de la población por categorías de ruralidad para el año 2022 y de los cambios en el período intercensal 2010-2022. Esta caracterización incorpora variables socioeconómicas clave, como ingresos familiares, que trascienden la información disponible en los censos. A través de una medición más granular de la ruralidad, el trabajo contribuye a una mejor caracterización de las necesidades y realidades de las poblaciones que habitan zonas aisladas y de transición.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
The Asymmetric Impact of Trade Shocks on Rural and Urban Areas: Evidence from Chile
This paper examines the causal effects of trade shocks on local labor markets (LLMs), with a focus on the rural–urban divide. In particular, it analyzes the impact of China’s integration into global trade on Chilean LLMs with varying degrees of rurality. The identification strategy exploits variation in pre-shock industrial specialization across LLMs and changes over time in global Chinese import penetration and industry-specific export demand. We study short-run effects (1996–2006) and medium run dynamics (through 2022). Urban LLMs, more exposed to import competition, experienced declines in income, increases in poverty and informality, and persistent schooling losses. Rural LLMs, linked to primary sectors benefiting from Chinese demand, saw sustained income growth and reductions in poverty and informality. These asymmetric effects likely contributed to narrowing regional disparities and underscore the importance of geographic exposure in shaping the distributional consequences of global trade integration.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Agricultural Distortions and International Migration
International migration is a recurrent phenomenon that has grown rapidly over the past two decades. This paper examines the role of agricultural distortions in shaping emigration patterns and influencing productivity and welfare in developing countries, using Guatemala as a case study. We develop a theoretical framework where household members can work in agriculture, non-agriculture, or emigrate, and calibrate the model combining detailed micro and aggregate data. Our model identifies two key channels through which agricultural distortions affect migration and productivity: a first channel where distortions increase emigration among more productive agents, reducing aggregate productivity, and a second channel where distortions drive factor misallocation, lowering incomes and increasing overall emigration.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
The Origins of Structural Transformation
The study examines how labor market shocks originating in non-agriculture affect the organization of agricultural production. Using data from Brazil between 1986 and 2017, it shows that the entry of large non-agricultural firms leads to persistent increases in local wages, declines in agricultural employment, and a shift toward more capital-intensive farming. Farms consolidate, the number of small operations declines, and mechanization increases. To study the magnitude of this reorganization, we develop a general equilibrium model which predicts that a reduction in entry costs in non-agriculture leads to labor reallocation out of agriculture, farm exit, and capital deepening. When we hold mechanization fixed, these adjustments are substantially attenuated, highlighting the role of endogenous technology adoption as an important amplification mechanism.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
¿Empleos verdes, empleos de mejor calidad? Una mirada desde los datos de PIAAC
Este estudio analiza las diferencias en la calidad del empleo entre ocupaciones verdes y no verdes utilizando datos de la encuesta PIAAC, con especial atención al ingreso salarial. El enfoque se centra en México, Chile y Ecuador, comparando sus patrones con los de países de la OCDE de ingresos altos y medios. Al controlar por habilidades cognitivas y otras variables, se identifican premios salariales en empleos verdes en América Latina y en países OCDE de ingresos medios, pero no en los de ingresos altos. Además, se abordan otras dimensiones de calidad laboral como automatización, formalidad, satisfacción y acceso a capacitación, reforzando la evidencia de beneficios asociados al empleo verde.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Does Increasing Public Spending in Health Improve Health? Lessons from a Constitutional Reform in Brazil
There is surprisingly scarce evidence regarding the extent to which and how government health expenditure affects health outcomes. Exploiting variation generated by Brazil’s 29th Constitutional Amendment, which mandated minimum thresholds for municipal spending on health, we examine the chain connecting government health spending to health inputs, production and outcomes, with a focus on infant mortality. We find relatively low average elasticities, but relevant heterogeneity in spending returns. Reductions in infant mortality are greater where baseline spending was lower, pointing to concave returns; where investments in infrastructure and personnel were complementary; and particularly where strong institutional and public management capabilities exist.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Embracing modernity pays: Cadastre modernization effects on local property tax collection
This paper investigates the impact of the Mexican cadastre modernization program on local property tax revenue. We evaluate a comprehensive modernization initiative, which began in 2010 and included guidelines, technical assistance, and subsidies for local cadastres. Using panel data from 2000 to 2019 and a Difference-in-Differences approach, we find that municipalities adopting the program saw a 10% increase in property tax revenue within five years, rising to 30% after eight years. This effect varies significantly with local state capacity and the coordinating institution implementing the program. The program significantly enhances the state of local cadastres over the long-term. Municipalities that adopt the program are more likely to invest in staff training, implement comprehensive cadastral management systems, and digitize their registries. Our results highlight the importance of local capacities and coordination in realizing the benefits of decentralization and modernization policies
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Internal Control as State Capacity
While previous research has thoroughly examined the consequences of external control on subnational governments, less is known about the drivers and consequences of internal control. This paper presents a series of findings on Brazilian municipalities’ internal control systems, leveraging administrative data and quasi-experimental designs. First, I use cross-sectional data to document that there remains significant variation in the resources, mandates, and actions of internal control systems. Second, I use panel data and a causal event study design to show that legal reforms of internal control systems lead to an increase in hires of internal controllers. Third, I show these legal reforms have downstream consequences in the control of patronage, leading to a reduction in the size of the municipal workforce, and a higher incidence of civil service contracts. Fourth, I show that randomized federal anti-corruption audits have significant effects on municipal control systems. Together, these findings highlight the relevance of local internal control institutions and call for further research on the causes and consequences of their strength.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Political Alignment and Inter-jurisdictional Cooperation in a Fragmented Political Landscape: Evidence from Mexico
We investigate the relationship between neighboring municipal authorities’ shared party affiliation and inter-jurisdictional cooperation agreements in Mexico. Exploiting a Regression Discontinuity Design in close municipal elections, we show that political alignment with neighboring municipalities translates into higher levels of inter-jurisdictional cooperation. Focusing particularly on crime prevention, we then document that cooperation has observable returns (homicide rates decline significantly) and that the difference in the probability of observing a cooperation agreement between same and different party mayors is larger when the returns to cooperation are higher.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
The Anatomy of Colombian Bureaucratic Hierarchies
The effective deployment of the bureaucracy is fundamental to government performance and economic development. We study the organizational architecture of the central administration for a large sample of municipal governments in Colombia. Our analysis yields four main findings. First, municipal population is the strongest predictor of the size of the local bureaucracy, but there is substantial variation in bureaucratic size even among municipalities with similar population or expenditure on public personnel. Second, while almost all municipal governments have employees at all hierarchical levels, the share of top managers monotonically decreases and the shares corresponding to lower layers grow as bureaucracies expand. However, only the largest bureaucracies achieve a pyramidal structure. Third, average wages monotonically increase with the hierarchical level, but they remain largely constant within levels for bureaucracies of different sizes. Fourth, larger shares of higher-level bureaucrats are robustly associated with municipal tax revenue per capita, conditional on bureaucratic size
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
%20del%20ingreso%20laboral_thumbnail.jpg)
El uso de informantes sustitutos en encuestas y la medición (incorrecta) del ingreso laboral
Cuando las personas seleccionadas para una muestra están ausentes, muchas encuestas recurren a un tercero que las represente — otro miembro del hogar que tenga conocimiento. En este trabajo estudiamos la diferencia entre el ingreso laboral informado por uno mismo (auto reportado) y el informado por un representante en México. Utilizamos la estructura de panel de la encuesta nacional de empleo y comparamos el ingreso de un mismo trabajador cuando lo reporta él mismo frente a cuando lo reporta otro miembro del hogar. Encontramos que los salarios mensuales de los hombres son 6.1% más bajos cuando son reportados por un tercero. Para las mujeres, la brecha de reporte es mínima. Proporcionamos evidencia de que la discrepancia en el ingreso reportado de los trabajadores masculinos se debe a una asimetría de información dentro del hogar, en parte debido a que los hombres ocultan ingresos a sus familiares. Finalmente, estudiamos las implicancias de usar respuestas de terceros en las encuestas y encontramos que esto puede producir una subestimación de la brecha salarial de género en un 60%.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Money and lies: proxy respondents and the mismeasurement of income in surveys
When sampled individuals are not found at home, many surveys rely on a proxy respondent: another knowledgeable household member. We study the difference between self- and proxy-reported labor income in Mexico. We use the panel structure of the Mexican labor force survey and compare workers' income when they report it themselves to their income when another household member does the reporting. We find that the monthly wage of male workers is 6.1% lower when reported by a proxy. For female workers, the reporting gap is minute. We provide evidence that the gap in the reported income of male workers is due to asymmetry of information within the household, in part due to men hiding income from their relatives. Finally, we study the implications of using proxy respondents and find that it can lead to an underestimation of the gender wage gap by 60%.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Decentralizing Development: Evidence from Government Splits
Changes in political boundaries aimed at devolving power to local governments are common in many countries. We examine the economic consequences of redistricting through the creation of smaller government units. Exploiting reforms that led to sharp variations in the number of government units in Brazil, we show that voluntary redistricting increases the size of the public sector, public services delivery, and economic activity in new local governments over the long term. The gains in economic activity are not offset by losses elsewhere and are stronger in peripheral and remote backward areas neglected by their parent governments. We provide evidence that decentralizing decision-making power boosts local development in disadvantaged areas beyond simply gains in fiscal revenues.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
The Economic Effects of an Accelerated Electrification and Decarbonization Process in Latin America
This research analyzes the potential economic effects of accelerated electrification and decarbonization in selected Latin American countries. Using an economic equilibrium model, four scenarios were evaluated: 1) a Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, 2) a BAU scenario with increased electricity interconnections, 3) a green scenario with an emphasis on higher renewable energy growth rates, and 4) a green scenario integrating both higher energy growth rates and interconnection improvements. We aim to assess the impact of these strategies on significant economic indicators by comparing the optimal solutions of each scenario, and determine the difference in gains. Our approach prioritizes the complexities of the energy sector while underscoring economic factors, enabling the identification of necessary compensatory redistributions. The comparison of these scenarios will provide policymakers and stakeholders with valuable insights into the costs and benefits of transitioning to a more sustainable energy system in Latin America.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
The Effects of Renewable Energy Projects on Employment: Evidence from Brazil
This paper studies the employment impacts of renewable energy projects in Brazil. Between 2006 and 2017, Brazil’s solar capacity increased from 0.001 GW to 1.01 GW, and wind capacity increased from 0.233 GW to 12.4 GW. Using detailed employment information from the universe of formal workers in Brazil, we analyze whether the development of renewable energy projects impacts employment in the local municipalities. Solar energy projects appear to have no significant impact on local economic activity. In contrast, we find that when new wind energy projects come online, total employment in a municipality increases by 15.95 percent, and the number of firms in a municipality increases by 14.84 percent. The number of jobs in the electricity sector increases by as much as 74.33 percent, 51.72 percent in the construction sector, and 22.54 in transportation. The employment increases appear to stem from growth of existing firms and growth of new firms. The effects persist and are even larger when we consider only municipalities that have not experienced expansions in their electricity grid. Proxying land lease income with municipal tax revenues, we do not find evidence that the effects are driven by windfall income from land leases.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Electricity Pricing and the Energy Transition for Residential and Non-Residential Consumers
High electricity prices hinder efforts to decarbonize through electrification. In this paper, we demonstrate the inefficiencies of the retail electricity tariffs for both residential and non residential consumers in Colombia. We show the low take up for a 2012 policy in Colombia that reduced electricity prices for industrial users. As an alternative, we propose a novel tariff design that eliminates customer class distinctions, aligns prices with marginal costs, and introduces a fixed charge based on estimated willingness to pay. Using data for the entire population of electricity consumers in Colombia, we illustrate the tariff’s potential to eliminate existing distortions in electricity pricing across customer classes while limiting bill increases for low income households.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Intensidad energética y estructura económica
Reducir la intensidad energética, definida como la cantidad de energía utilizada para producir una unidad de producto, es una condición clave para lograr el desacople; esto es, crecimiento económico con reducción de emisiones. Usualmente, la intensidad energética está asociada a la eficiencia energética que, si bien es un factor determinante, no es el único. Por el contrario, dado que los sectores difieren en su nivel de intensidad, cambios en la estructura económica también generan efectos sobre el nivel agregado de intensidad energética. Este artículo aplica diferentes descomposiciones de la intensidad energética para explicar su evolución y nivel, separando el rol de la eficiencia energética del de la estructura económica. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que ambos componentes son claves para explicar los niveles y los cambios observados entre 2011 y 2017 en la intensidad energética para un conjunto de doce países de América Latina y el Caribe, en comparación con la OCDE.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Acceso y consumo de energía residencial en América Latina y el Caribe
Este trabajo estima el acceso de los hogares latinoamericanos a distintas fuentes de energía (modernas y no modernas), así también como el gasto asociado a su consumo. En particular, se estudia cómo difiere el acceso a lo largo de la distribución del ingreso, entre hogares residiendo en áreas urbanas y rurales y entre hogares localizados en distintas regiones de los respectivos países. En la medida de lo posible se presenta información para comienzos de siglo, comienzos de los 2010s y la información más reciente. Los resultados obtenidos indican que la región ha logrado avanzar bastante en la universalización del acceso a electricidad residencial, pero muestran que existe un largo camino a recorrer para garantizar el acceso a gas de red y gas licuado de petróleo. Asimismo, la evidencia presentada también señala que existen importantes diferencias, tanto entre países como al interior de ellos, en el acceso y utilización de las distintas fuentes de energía.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Desafíos regulatorios en la incorporación de energías renovables
La transición hacia una matriz energética libre de emisiones de gases invernadero presenta múltiples desafíos desde el punto regulatorio. Primero, será necesario proveer los incentivos para que haya capacidad de generación y transmisión suficiente para mantener un sistema confiable, lo que se hace más difícil debido a que la intermitencia de las tecnologías renovables aumenta la volatilidad de la generación y la hace más difícil predecir. Para esto, también es importante proveer incentivos para que el sistema opere de manera eficiente, para lo cual es necesario que los precios a los que se transan los distintos servicios reflejen el costo de producirlos. En el artículo se discuten los desafíos en estas dos líneas, y finalmente se discute brevemente el caso de algunos países en su transición energética.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Preventing underage alcohol use through changes in norms and risk perception: A randomized evaluation of two school-based prevention programs in Colombia
This study evaluates the short-term impact of two school-based inter ventions designed to prevent alcohol use among children in high-risk schools in Bogotá, Colombia. The programs aimed at increasing the perception of risk and modifying normative values and beliefs related to alcohol consumption among students as a mechanism to delay first-time alcohol use and reduce consumption among those already consuming alcohol. The two interventions varied in terms of the core curriculum strategy and the organization that implemented them. A stratified random assignment procedure was used to allocate 100 schools, with approximately 13.000 sixth-grade students, across three study arms (i.e., two treatment groups and a control group). The stu dents who received treatment were given the first intervention in sixth grade, followed by a second wave in seventh grade. The study results show that both programs were effective in affecting the perception of the risk of alcohol consumption and normative attitudes toward alco hol use in the desired direction. One of the main factors that explain these results is the increase in students’ objective knowledge about the harmful effects of alcohol consumption. However, there were no systematic effects on actual consumption as reported by students.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Difference-in-Differences in Equilibrium: Evidence from Placed-Based Policies
Violations of the stable unit treatment value assumption (SUTVA) are a common threat to identification of the effects of policies causing the resorting of agents between treated and untreated groups. We show that in such contexts the difference-in-differences estimator can be decomposed into three effects (autarky, resorting and contamination). We also show that demand and supply elasticities are “sufficient statistics” for the relative size of these effects and that there exist a trade-off in terms of heterogeneity between SUTVA and parallel trends assumption violations. We illustrate our argument by studying a large placed-based tax break for the construction of residential housing in Uruguay. First, we obtain a series of difference-in-differences estimates of the effect of the policy on housing prices and show that they differ considerably depending on the degree of heterogeneity between subsidized and unsubsidized areas. Consistent with our conceptual framework, prices fall substantially when comparing heterogeneous areas, and very little or not at all when comparing similar areas. Second, we estimate a structural model of supply and demand for neighborhoods that rationalizes those different estimates and allows us to recover the three effects as well as the welfare impact of the policy. Overall, we find that SUTVA violations account for 25% of the effect on subsidized areas and lead to a sizable underestimation (24 p.p.) of the incidence of the tax break on subsidized areas.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Medición de las necesidades refrigeración y calefacción en América Latina y el Caribe
Las temperaturas extremas afectan negativamente el aprendizaje, la productividad y la salud. La exposición de las poblaciones a las mismas adquiere especial relevancia debido al cambio climático. El presente trabajo presenta la distribución completa de las necesidades de calefacción y refrigeración presentes y futuras de la población y el territorio de América Latina y el Caribe. Si bien en la región predominan las necesidades de calefacción, dicha distribución completa permite identificar subpoblaciones y territorios con necesidades de refrigeración similares a las de los países fríos de Europa. La distribución completa futura de las necesidades de climatización según la senda socioeconómica compartida del IPCC (SSP2-4.5) revela incrementos del 25 % en el mediano plazo y del 50 % en el largo plazo en las necesidades de refrigeración en los países cálidos, que constituyen la mayoría. Por último, se utiliza la distribución completa de necesidades de refrigeración para estimar la posesión actual y futura de aires acondicionados para todos los países, dato esencial para prever el incremento en la demanda de electricidad y cuyo valor actual se encuentra disponible solo para la mitad de los países.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Sistemas de salud e Inequidades en Salud en América Latina
El presente documento describe medidas de desigualdad en el acceso a la atención sanitaria y en los resultados de salud en países de América Latina, utilizando métricas estandarizadas introducidas en un estudio relacionado (Bancalari et al., 2023). Se observa que los países con sistemas de salud tipo Beveridge tienden a presentar menores desigualdades en comparación con aquellos que adoptan sistemas Bismarckianos. Sin embargo, no se identifica un patrón definido en las desigualdades a lo largo de nuestra taxonomía, sugiriendo que variables no observadas del sistema de salud podrían influir más significativamente en las disparidades en salud y en la atención sanitaria que las características generales que definen nuestra clasificación de sistemas de salud. Finalmente, se analizan las diferencias en el uso de la atención sanitaria y los resultados de salud dentro de los países, en relación con el beneficio de los individuos de los subsistemas contributivos o no contributivos, y se evalúan los principales factores que explican estas diferencias mediante descomposiciones de Oaxaca.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Inequidades en Salud en América Latina y el Caribe: Salud Infantil, Adolescente, Reproductiva, Síndrome Metabólico y Salud Mental
Este estudio examina la desigualdad en salud en América Latina y el Caribe (LAC). En primer lugar, se describe cómo las transformaciones demográficas han modificado la carga de enfermedad en los últimos 30 años. Inicialmente dominada por problemas maternos, neonatales y transmisibles, la región enfrenta ahora un aumento de enfermedades cardiovasculares, cánceres, diabetes y trastornos de salud mental. Luego se documentan las marcadas disparidades en salud por condición socioeconómica. Los hallazgos subrayan que las desigualdades de salud en la infancia y adolescencia son más críticas que en la adultez, con diferencias notables en salud infantil según la riqueza del país y en algunos resultados de salud en adultos.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Opportunistic behavior and discrimination in the Mexican Solar PV market: An audit experiment
We conducted an audit experiment in which fictional households requested quotes for the purchase, installation, and interconnection of solar photovoltaic systems in four cities across Mexico. This allowed us to identify whether there was opportunistic behavior among local sellers and to quantify the extent of discrimination based on characteristics of residential users, such as gender, socioeconomic status, product knowledge, and access to external financing sources. The main findings indicate that women and customers with higher socioeconomic status not only face price discrimination but are also offered oversized systems. There is no evidence of such practices towards customers with prior product information or those who have secured external financing for the purchase.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Análisis de demanda de empleo verde a partir de información de vacantes para América Latina y el Caribe en el contexto de la transición energética
La transición verde representa una de las fuerzas de transformación más significativas del mercado laboral en los próximos años. Esta tendencia del mercado laboral asociada a la transición verde se ha enmarcado en el estudio sobre empleos verdes. Este capítulo analiza la incidencia de empleos verdes en cuatro países de América Latina utilizando información proveniente de portales de empleo. Los resultados muestran que los mercados laborales actuales presentan una baja incidencia de demanda por empleo con potencial verde o de ocupaciones nuevas y emergentes relacionados con la transición verde. Dichas ocupaciones se caracterizan por requerir altos niveles educativos y ofrecen una prima salarial significativa. Estos resultados destacan el principal desafío de la transición verde, que radica en la necesidad de implementar procesos de formación, al mismo tiempo que revelan oportunidades para la creación de empleos decentes en la región.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
The non-green effects of “going green”: Local environmental and economic consequences of lithium extraction in Chile
In this paper, we analyze the local environmental and economic impacts of lithium extraction in the Atacama Salt Flat (ASF) inChile. We use satellite data to estimate the effects on vegetation at a resolution of 30m × 30m as well as on the local human populations at a resolution of 100m × 100m near the ASF. We compare changes over time in NDVI and human settlements and show how they are affected by exposure to lithium extraction. Our estimates suggest that an increase of 1 standard deviation in our measure of exposure to lithium extraction reduced vegetation in nearby areas by 0.09 standard deviations, and specifically inhuman settlements by 0.22 standard deviations. Also, human populations in the local villages were reduced by 0.04 standard deviations for 1 standard deviation closer to the ASF. Further, we show that the negative effect on NDVI was greater for thoselocations with higher levels of vegetation at baseline.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
The Impact of Solar Panel Installation on Electricity Consumption and Production
Since 2010, the Uruguayan government has fostered the instal lation of solar panels among households and firms to promotesmall-scale renewable electricity production. Under this policy, agents with solar panels are allowed to feed any electricity sur plus into the grid. We study the economic and environmental consequences of this policy. We collect a novel dataset on elec tricity extraction and injection into the grid at a household-firm level for the whole country. First, we find that installing a solarpanel reduces the electricity extracted from the grid. Second, we find that it increases the electricity injected into the grid. Third, we find that it reduces CO2 emissions between 0.35 and 0.03 kg per month and agent. Fourth, we find evidence of a rebound effect: electricity consumption after the solar panel installation increases between 20% and 26%, on average. Lastly, we propose an alternative policy that allows agents to store their electricity surplus in batteries instead of immediately injecting it into the grid. According to our model, the best time to inject electricity into the grid is around 9 PM, when fossil-fuel facilities satisfy most of the electricity demand. We leverage household and firm-level data to study the effect of a net-metering policy on electricity extraction and injection, showing what countries can expect from implementing such a policy.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Educational Mobility Across Three Generations in Latin American Countries
This paper presents new evidence on educational mobility across
three generations in six Latin American countries (LAC). Combining survey information with national census data we build a
data set with 50,000 triads of grandparents-parent-children born
between 1890 and 1990. We estimate a five mobility measures,
to show that (i) the empirical multi-generational persistence is
high in LAC; (ii) it is much larger than what Becker & Tomes
(1986) theoretical model predicts, with a bias that is twice as
large for LAC compared to developed countries; (iii) Clark’s
theory (2014) of high and sticky persistence provides a better approximation for describing mobility across multiple generations
in developing countries. We also uncover that while relative
measures suggest stagnant mobility across generations, there
are significant improvements according to non-linear measures
suggested by Asher, Novosad & Rafkin (2022). This result is
especially relevant for developing countries such as LAC, where
historical educational expansions have markedly benefited the
lower end of the schooling distribution.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Intergenerational transmission of teen childbearing in Latin America
Using DHS data for six Latin American countries, we estimate the relation between a mother’s teenage childbearing status and that of her daughter. Restricting the estimating sample to mother-daughter matches in the data leads to a large negative selection bias in the estimated effect because missing matches are non-random and affected by the teen childbearing status of mothers and daughters. We deal with this selection bias by developing a Maximum Likelihood estimation using all available data, including incomplete mother-daughter pairs, and allowing missing observations to be endogenous. Our results show that being the daughter of a teen mother increases the chances of being a teen mother between 8.7 and 26.2 percentage points (between 61 and 172%). We conclude that the prevalence of such high intergenerational transmission is at the core of persistent high teenage childbearing rates in Latin America and suggests alternative public policy fixes.
Latin America has experienced high rates of teen childbearing for decades. Using DHS data for six Latin American countries, we estimate the relation between a mother’s teenage childbearing status and that of her daughter. Restricting the estimating sample to mother-daughter matches in the data leads to a large negative selection bias in the estimated effect because missing matches are nonrandom and affected by the teen childbearing status of mothers and daughters. We deal with this selection bias by developing a maximum likelihood estimation using all available data, including incomplete mother-daughter pairs, and allowing missing observations to be endogenous. Our results show that being the daughter of a teen mother increases the chances of being a teen mother between 9.1 and 23.7 percent age points (75 and 123% relative to the mean incidence of teen childbearing). We conclude that the prevalence of such high intergenerational transmission is at the core of persistent high teenage childbearing rates in Latin America.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Rule–based civil service: evidence from a nationwide teacher reform in Mexico
This paper studies the effect of a civil service reform on the skills
profile of new teachers in Mexico. The reform mandated the use
of rule-based recruitment over discretionary hiring. Our results
show that the reform led to hiring teachers with higher cognitive
skills. We also show that an improvement in the bottom of the
skills distribution of new hires drove this change. Two channels
explain these effects. First, the reform decreased the prevalence
of discretionary hires, who tended to be drawn from the bot tom of the skills distribution. Second, the reform improved the
screening efficiency of rule-based hiring, making cognitive skills
more important determinants of hiring outcomes.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Inter-generational Persistence in the Ownership of Real Assets: Evidence from Latin America
We explore inter-generational mobility in assets ownership for Latin America. Our findings confirm the strong correlation between parents and offspring ownership, even after controlling for education and labor outcomes. Second, we provide evidence pointing to the role of inheritances, assortative mating, health shocks, lack of access to credit, and
the intergenerational transmission of personality traits, as potential mechanisms behind the high persistence. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to estimate inter-generational persistence in asset ownership and the mechanisms behind this phenomenon for Latin America, a highly unequal region.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
The Political Economy of Slum Growth: Evidence from Brazil
One-fourth of the world’s urban population lives in slums and the number of slum residents grew from 650 million in 1990 to 1 billion in 2018. Existing explanations for slum growth focus on rural-urban migration and poverty. While these factors are relevant for rapidly urbanizing low-income countries, slum growth is frequent in highly urbanized, middle-income countries in Latin America. This paper provides evidence from Brazil that local government actions can increase slum growth without changes in poverty or immigration. Using a regression discontinuity design in close elections, I find that victories by a center-left, pro-poor party in the 2000 municipal election strongly increased the share of households living in slums in 2010 compared to 2000. I explore the mechanisms behind this result with a novel panel of census tracts and data on municipalities’ policies, expenditures, and sociodemographics. A more permissive attitude towards the formation of new slums is the main candidate to explain the observed effect.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
The unintended environmental effect of a climate change adaptation strategy: evidence from the Colombian coffee sector
Climate change is a major threat to agricultural productivity in developing countries. In this paper, we explore the unintended environmental effects of an adaptation policy that conditioned credit programs for the renewal of coffee crops on the use of pest-resistant varieties. We use the case of the Colombian coffee sector, which was severely affected by extreme rainfall events and pest proliferation from 2010–2011. In response, the National Federation of Coffee Growers (NFCG) changed its policy to protect farmers from future weather shocks by conditioning renewal credits to the use of pest-resistant seeds. We exploit the timing of the policy and a novel data set that includes coffee farms’ productive characteristics matched with satellite tree cover data to analyze its environmental effect. We find that conditioning renewal credits on a seed change decrease tree cover in treated coffee growers by 390 m2. If we extend this result to all treated farms in our sample, the total loss increases to 1,031 (10.31 million m2). We calculate that this average loss in tree coverage on treated farms translates into a release of 61,912 tons of carbon.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica
Greenflation: The cost of the green transition in small open economies
We propose a new model of a small open economy with efficient energy use to investigate the inflationary dynamics along the green transition. The model incorporates the production of green energy that substitutes exogenous brown energy sources in energy production. Production is characterized by low substitutability between resource and traditional inputs that firms can alter through directed input-saving technical change. We study transitional dynamics induced by exogenous increases of brown energy prices and/or changes in the brown energy taxation; green subsidies and green public investment. Increases in brown energy prices and taxes decrease the usage of brown energy but do not expand significantly the green sector, they simply improve energy efficiency use, surging firm’s marginal costs leading to greenflation and output losses. Public investment and subsidies effectively increase the usage of green energy. Green investment expands output and reduces green energy prices as it increases the productivity of the green sector. Subsidies imply a slower transition with small output costs and elevated green energy prices. We discuss the fiscal costs and welfare implications of the transition using different welfare metrics.
Documentos de trabalho de investigação socioeconómica